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Poll published 2014-10 (month precision).", "last_date": "2014-11-04", "observations": 2, "source_url": "https://www.fec.gov/resources/cms-content/documents/federalelections2014.pdf" }, { "first_date": "2020-09-14", "id": "ME-SEN-2020", "label": "ME-SEN-2020: D-minus-R net favorability +20 pp; official vote margin -8.60 pp (same-state historical example; not a coefficient). Poll published 2020-09-16 (day precision).", "last_date": "2020-11-03", "observations": 2, "source_url": "https://www.maine.gov/sos/sites/maine.gov.sos/files/content/assets/ussenator1120.xlsx" } ], "status": "partial" }, "measurement": { "field_end": "2026-10-04", "field_start": "2026-10-01", "geography": "ME", "method": "live phone/text/online", "population": "registered voters", "published_at": "2026-10-06", "question": "Question summary (paraphrase): In general, do you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of the named candidate?", "reference_period": null, "retrieved_at": "2026-10-08", "sample_n": 1505, "screen": "RV", "source_page": 21, "subgroup_n": null, "unit": "D net minus R net favorable points", "value": 3 }, "public_observation": true, "schema_version": 1, "sources": [ { "access_status": "reviewed_local_record", "field_end": "2026-10-04", "field_start": "2026-10-01", "geography": "ME", "name": "Marist", "population": "registered voters", "published_at": "2026-10-06", "raw_sha256": null, "retrieved_at": null, "screen": "RV", "source_id": null, "url": "https://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/Marist-Poll_Maine-NOS-and-Tables_202610051032xtc92617B.pdf" } ], "status": "derived", "trend": { "delta": null, "first_date": null, "last_date": null, "observations": 0, "per_day": null, "points": [], "status": "not_established", "unit": "D net minus R net favorable points", "window_days": 60 }, "verification": { "discrepancies": [], "newer_measurements": [], "source_urls": [ "https://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/Marist-Poll_Maine-NOS-and-Tables_202610051032xtc92617B.pdf" ], "status": "primary_verified", "verified_at": "2026-10-08" } }, "id": "candidate_gap_SENATE-ME", "label": "SENATE-ME candidate favorability gap", "race_id": "SENATE-ME", "source_name": "Marist", "source_url": "https://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/Marist-Poll_Maine-NOS-and-Tables_202610051032xtc92617B.pdf", "unit": "D net minus R net favorable points", "value": 3 }, { "as_of": "2026-09-27", "evidence": { "history": { "first_date": "2006-09-17", "last_date": "2026-09-27", "observations": 18, "series": [ { "first_date": "2000-10-22", "id": "US-PRES-2000", "label": "US-PRES-2000: D-minus-R net favorability -5 pp; official vote margin +0.52 pp (national presidential popular-vote context; Electoral College outcome is separate; not a coefficient). Poll published 2000-10-24 (day precision).", "last_date": "2000-11-07", "observations": 2, "source_url": "https://www.fec.gov/documents/1556/federalelections00.pdf" }, { "first_date": "2006-09-17", "id": "OH-SEN-2006", "label": "OH-SEN-2006: D-minus-R net favorability +4 pp; official vote margin +12.35 pp (same-state historical example; not a coefficient). Poll published 2006-09-20 (day precision).", "last_date": "2006-11-07", "observations": 2, "source_url": "https://www.fec.gov/resources/cms-content/documents/federalelections2006.pdf" }, { "first_date": "2010-10-06", "id": "OH-SEN-2010", "label": "OH-SEN-2010: D-minus-R net favorability -25 pp; official vote margin -17.44 pp (same-state historical example; not a coefficient). Poll published 2010-10-07 (day precision).", "last_date": "2010-11-02", "observations": 2, "source_url": "https://www.fec.gov/resources/cms-content/documents/federalelections2010.pdf" }, { "first_date": "2010-10-06", "id": "OH-GOV-2010", "label": "OH-GOV-2010: D-minus-R net favorability -4 pp; official vote margin -2.00 pp (same-state historical example; not a coefficient). Poll published 2010-10-07 (day precision).", "last_date": "2010-11-02", "observations": 2, "source_url": "https://search-prod.lis.state.oh.us/api/v2/general_assembly_129/journals/journal_h_20110301/pdf/" }, { "first_date": "2024-10-07", "id": "OH-SEN-2024", "label": "OH-SEN-2024: D-minus-R net favorability +8 pp; official vote margin -3.62 pp (same-state historical example; not a coefficient). Poll published 2024-10-10 (day precision).", "last_date": "2024-11-05", "observations": 2, "source_url": "https://clerk.house.gov/member_info/electionInfo/2024/statistics2024.pdf" } ], "status": "partial" }, "measurement": { "field_end": "2026-09-27", "field_start": "2026-09-24", "geography": "OH", "method": "live phone/text/online", "population": "registered voters", "published_at": "2026-09-29", "question": "Question summary (paraphrase): In general, do you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of the named candidate?", "reference_period": null, "retrieved_at": "2026-10-08", "sample_n": 1298, "screen": "RV", "source_page": 25, "subgroup_n": null, "unit": "D net minus R net favorable points", "value": 12 }, "public_observation": true, "schema_version": 1, "sources": [ { "access_status": "reviewed_local_record", "field_end": "2026-09-27", "field_start": "2026-09-24", "geography": "OH", "name": "Marist", "population": "registered voters", "published_at": "2026-09-29", "raw_sha256": null, "retrieved_at": null, "screen": "RV", "source_id": null, "url": "https://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Marist-Poll_OH-NOS-and-Tables_202609281347aC909p6465.pdf" } ], "status": "derived", "trend": { "delta": null, "first_date": null, "last_date": null, "observations": 0, "per_day": null, "points": [], "status": "not_established", "unit": "D net minus R net favorable points", "window_days": 60 }, "verification": { "discrepancies": [], "newer_measurements": [], "source_urls": [ "https://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Marist-Poll_OH-NOS-and-Tables_202609281347aC909p6465.pdf" ], "status": "primary_verified", "verified_at": "2026-10-08" } }, "id": "candidate_gap_SENATE-OH", "label": "SENATE-OH candidate favorability gap", "race_id": "SENATE-OH", "source_name": "Marist", "source_url": "https://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Marist-Poll_OH-NOS-and-Tables_202609281347aC909p6465.pdf", "unit": "D net minus R net favorable points", "value": 12 }, { "as_of": "2026-09-27", "evidence": { "history": { "first_date": "2006-09-17", "last_date": "2026-09-27", "observations": 18, "series": [ { "first_date": "2000-10-22", "id": "US-PRES-2000", "label": "US-PRES-2000: D-minus-R net favorability -5 pp; official vote margin +0.52 pp (national presidential popular-vote context; Electoral College outcome is separate; not a coefficient). Poll published 2000-10-24 (day precision).", "last_date": "2000-11-07", "observations": 2, "source_url": "https://www.fec.gov/documents/1556/federalelections00.pdf" }, { "first_date": "2006-09-17", "id": "OH-SEN-2006", "label": "OH-SEN-2006: D-minus-R net favorability +4 pp; official vote margin +12.35 pp (same-state historical example; not a coefficient). Poll published 2006-09-20 (day precision).", "last_date": "2006-11-07", "observations": 2, "source_url": "https://www.fec.gov/resources/cms-content/documents/federalelections2006.pdf" }, { "first_date": "2010-10-06", "id": "OH-SEN-2010", "label": "OH-SEN-2010: D-minus-R net favorability -25 pp; official vote margin -17.44 pp (same-state historical example; not a coefficient). Poll published 2010-10-07 (day precision).", "last_date": "2010-11-02", "observations": 2, "source_url": "https://www.fec.gov/resources/cms-content/documents/federalelections2010.pdf" }, { "first_date": "2010-10-06", "id": "OH-GOV-2010", "label": "OH-GOV-2010: D-minus-R net favorability -4 pp; official vote margin -2.00 pp (same-state historical example; not a coefficient). Poll published 2010-10-07 (day precision).", "last_date": "2010-11-02", "observations": 2, "source_url": "https://search-prod.lis.state.oh.us/api/v2/general_assembly_129/journals/journal_h_20110301/pdf/" }, { "first_date": "2024-10-07", "id": "OH-SEN-2024", "label": "OH-SEN-2024: D-minus-R net favorability +8 pp; official vote margin -3.62 pp (same-state historical example; not a coefficient). Poll published 2024-10-10 (day precision).", "last_date": "2024-11-05", "observations": 2, "source_url": "https://clerk.house.gov/member_info/electionInfo/2024/statistics2024.pdf" } ], "status": "partial" }, "measurement": { "field_end": "2026-09-27", "field_start": "2026-09-24", "geography": "OH", "method": "live phone/text/online", "population": "registered voters", "published_at": "2026-09-29", "question": "Question summary (paraphrase): In general, do you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of the named candidate?", "reference_period": null, "retrieved_at": "2026-10-08", "sample_n": 1298, "screen": "RV", "source_page": 27, "subgroup_n": null, "unit": "D net minus R net favorable points", "value": 11 }, "public_observation": true, "schema_version": 1, "sources": [ { "access_status": "reviewed_local_record", "field_end": "2026-09-27", "field_start": "2026-09-24", "geography": "OH", "name": "Marist", "population": "registered voters", "published_at": "2026-09-29", "raw_sha256": null, "retrieved_at": null, "screen": "RV", "source_id": null, "url": "https://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Marist-Poll_OH-NOS-and-Tables_202609281347aC909p6465.pdf" } ], "status": "derived", "trend": { "delta": null, "first_date": null, "last_date": null, "observations": 0, "per_day": null, "points": [], "status": "not_established", "unit": "D net minus R net favorable points", "window_days": 60 }, "verification": { "discrepancies": [], "newer_measurements": [], "source_urls": [ "https://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Marist-Poll_OH-NOS-and-Tables_202609281347aC909p6465.pdf" ], "status": "primary_verified", "verified_at": "2026-10-08" } }, "id": "candidate_gap_GOVERNOR-OH", "label": "GOVERNOR-OH candidate favorability gap", "race_id": "GOVERNOR-OH", "source_name": "Marist", "source_url": "https://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Marist-Poll_OH-NOS-and-Tables_202609281347aC909p6465.pdf", "unit": "D net minus R net favorable points", "value": 11 }, { "as_of": "2026-09-20", "evidence": { "history": { "first_date": "2026-09-14", "last_date": "2026-09-20", "observations": 8, "series": [ { "first_date": "2000-10-22", "id": "US-PRES-2000", "label": "US-PRES-2000: D-minus-R net favorability -5 pp; official vote margin +0.52 pp (national presidential popular-vote context; Electoral College outcome is separate; not a coefficient). Poll published 2000-10-24 (day precision).", "last_date": "2000-11-07", "observations": 2, "source_url": "https://www.fec.gov/documents/1556/federalelections00.pdf" } ], "status": "partial" }, "measurement": { "field_end": "2026-09-20", "field_start": "2026-09-17", "geography": "TX", "method": "Live telephone (203), text (692), online (244); English/Spanish. Registration screened against L2 voter database; Cint online panel matched to L2.", "population": "registered voters", "published_at": "2026-09-23", "question": "In general, do you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of {candidate}?", "reference_period": null, "retrieved_at": "2026-10-08", "sample_n": 1139, "screen": "RV", "source_page": 23, "subgroup_n": null, "unit": "D net minus R net favorable points", "value": 22 }, "public_observation": true, "schema_version": 1, "sources": [ { "access_status": "reviewed_local_record", "field_end": "2026-09-20", "field_start": "2026-09-17", "geography": "TX", "name": "Marist", "population": "registered voters", "published_at": "2026-09-23", "raw_sha256": null, "retrieved_at": "2026-10-08", "screen": "RV", "source_id": null, "url": "https://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Marist-Poll_TX-NOS-and-Tables_202609221131.pdf" } ], "status": "derived", "trend": { "delta": null, "first_date": null, "last_date": null, "observations": 0, "per_day": null, "points": [], "status": "not_established", "unit": "D net minus R net favorable points", "window_days": 60 }, "verification": { "discrepancies": [], "newer_measurements": [], "source_urls": [ "https://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Marist-Poll_TX-NOS-and-Tables_202609221131.pdf" ], "status": "primary_verified", "verified_at": "2026-10-08" } }, "id": "candidate_gap_SENATE-TX", "label": "SENATE-TX candidate favorability gap", "race_id": "SENATE-TX", "source_name": "Marist", "source_url": "https://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Marist-Poll_TX-NOS-and-Tables_202609221131.pdf", "unit": "D net minus R net favorable points", "value": 22 }, { "as_of": "2026-09-20", "evidence": { "history": { "first_date": "2026-09-14", "last_date": "2026-09-20", "observations": 8, "series": [ { "first_date": "2000-10-22", "id": "US-PRES-2000", "label": "US-PRES-2000: D-minus-R net favorability -5 pp; official vote margin +0.52 pp (national presidential popular-vote context; Electoral College outcome is separate; not a coefficient). Poll published 2000-10-24 (day precision).", "last_date": "2000-11-07", "observations": 2, "source_url": "https://www.fec.gov/documents/1556/federalelections00.pdf" } ], "status": "partial" }, "measurement": { "field_end": "2026-09-20", "field_start": "2026-09-17", "geography": "TX", "method": "Live telephone (203), text (692), online (244); English/Spanish. Registration screened against L2 voter database; Cint online panel matched to L2.", "population": "registered voters", "published_at": "2026-09-23", "question": "In general, do you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of {candidate}?", "reference_period": null, "retrieved_at": "2026-10-08", "sample_n": 1139, "screen": "RV", "source_page": 25, "subgroup_n": null, "unit": "D net minus R net favorable points", "value": 19 }, "public_observation": true, "schema_version": 1, "sources": [ { "access_status": "reviewed_local_record", "field_end": "2026-09-20", "field_start": "2026-09-17", "geography": "TX", "name": "Marist", "population": "registered voters", "published_at": "2026-09-23", "raw_sha256": null, "retrieved_at": "2026-10-08", "screen": "RV", "source_id": null, "url": "https://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Marist-Poll_TX-NOS-and-Tables_202609221131.pdf" } ], "status": "derived", "trend": { "delta": null, "first_date": null, "last_date": null, "observations": 0, "per_day": null, "points": [], "status": "not_established", "unit": "D net minus R net favorable points", "window_days": 60 }, "verification": { "discrepancies": [], "newer_measurements": [], "source_urls": [ "https://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Marist-Poll_TX-NOS-and-Tables_202609221131.pdf" ], "status": "primary_verified", "verified_at": "2026-10-08" } }, "id": "candidate_gap_GOVERNOR-TX", "label": "GOVERNOR-TX candidate favorability gap", "race_id": "GOVERNOR-TX", "source_name": "Marist", "source_url": "https://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Marist-Poll_TX-NOS-and-Tables_202609221131.pdf", "unit": "D net minus R net favorable points", "value": 19 }, { "as_of": "2026-09-23", "evidence": { "history": { "first_date": "2026-08-20", "last_date": "2026-09-23", "observations": 4, "series": [ { "first_date": "2000-10-22", "id": "US-PRES-2000", "label": "US-PRES-2000: D-minus-R net favorability -5 pp; official vote margin +0.52 pp (national presidential popular-vote context; Electoral College outcome is separate; not a coefficient). Poll published 2000-10-24 (day precision).", "last_date": "2000-11-07", "observations": 2, "source_url": "https://www.fec.gov/documents/1556/federalelections00.pdf" } ], "status": "partial" }, "measurement": { "field_end": "2026-09-23", "field_start": "2026-09-16", "geography": "WI", "method": "hybrid voter-file/SSRS sample; online and live telephone", "population": "registered voters", "published_at": "2026-09-30", "question": "Question summary (paraphrase): Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of the named person, or have you not heard enough?", "reference_period": null, "retrieved_at": "2026-10-08", "sample_n": 843, "screen": "RV", "source_page": null, "subgroup_n": null, "unit": "D net minus R net favorable points", "value": -7 }, "public_observation": true, "schema_version": 1, "sources": [ { "access_status": "reviewed_local_record", "field_end": "2026-09-23", "field_start": "2026-09-16", "geography": "WI", "name": "Marquette Law School", "population": "registered voters", "published_at": "2026-09-30", "raw_sha256": null, "retrieved_at": null, "screen": "RV", "source_id": null, "url": "https://law.marquette.edu/poll/2026/09/30/mlsp91-press-release/" } ], "status": "derived", "trend": { "delta": null, "first_date": null, "last_date": null, "observations": 0, "per_day": null, "points": [], "status": "not_established", "unit": "D net minus R net favorable points", "window_days": 60 }, "verification": { "discrepancies": [], "newer_measurements": [], "source_urls": [ "https://law.marquette.edu/poll/2026/09/30/mlsp91-press-release/" ], "status": "primary_verified", "verified_at": "2026-10-08" } }, "id": "candidate_gap_GOVERNOR-WI", "label": "GOVERNOR-WI candidate favorability gap", "race_id": "GOVERNOR-WI", "source_name": "Marquette Law School", "source_url": "https://law.marquette.edu/poll/2026/09/30/mlsp91-press-release/", "unit": "D net minus R net favorable points", "value": -7 }, { "as_of": "2026-09-10", "evidence": { "history": { "first_date": "2016-09-18", "last_date": "2026-09-10", "observations": 6, "series": [ { "first_date": "2016-09-18", "id": "PPIC_CA_NATURALIZED_LV_2016-09-18", "label": "2016-09-18: Barack Obama, California naturalized likely voters, 53% approve; subgroup n=173", "last_date": "2016-09-18", "observations": 1, "source_url": "https://www.ppic.org/wp-content/uploads/content/pubs/other/Crosstabs_LikelyVoters0916.pdf" }, { "first_date": "2018-09-18", "id": "PPIC_CA_NATURALIZED_LV_2018-09-18", "label": "2018-09-18: Donald Trump, California naturalized likely voters, 32% approve; subgroup n=132", "last_date": "2018-09-18", "observations": 1, "source_url": "https://www.ppic.org/wp-content/uploads/crosstabs-likely-voters-0918.pdf" }, { "first_date": "2020-09-13", "id": "PPIC_CA_NATURALIZED_LV_2020-09-13", "label": "2020-09-13: Donald Trump, California naturalized likely voters, 31% approve; subgroup n=163", "last_date": "2020-09-13", "observations": 1, "source_url": "https://www.ppic.org/wp-content/uploads/crosstabs-likely-voters-0920.pdf" }, { "first_date": "2022-09-11", "id": "PPIC_CA_NATURALIZED_LV_2022-09-11", "label": "2022-09-11: Joe Biden, California naturalized likely voters, 78% approve; subgroup n=99", "last_date": "2022-09-11", "observations": 1, "source_url": "https://www.ppic.org/wp-content/uploads/crosstabs-likely-voters-0922.pdf" }, { "first_date": "2024-09-09", "id": "PPIC_CA_NATURALIZED_LV_2024-09-09", "label": "2024-09-09: Joe Biden, California naturalized likely voters, 51% approve; subgroup n=164", "last_date": "2024-09-09", "observations": 1, "source_url": "https://www.ppic.org/wp-content/uploads/crosstabs-likely-voters-0924.pdf" }, { "first_date": "2026-09-10", "id": "PPIC_CA_NATURALIZED_LV_2026-09-10", "label": "2026-09-10: Donald Trump, California naturalized likely voters, 23% approve; subgroup n=193", "last_date": "2026-09-10", "observations": 1, "source_url": "https://www.ppic.org/wp-content/uploads/crosstabs-likely-voters-0926.pdf" } ], "status": "partial" }, "measurement": { "field_end": "2026-09-10", "field_start": "2026-09-04", "geography": "CA", "method": "Online Ipsos KnowledgePanel interviews in English and Spanish.", "population": "California naturalized citizen likely voters", "published_at": "2026-09-15", "question": "Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that Donald Trump is handling his job as president?", "reference_period": null, "retrieved_at": "2026-10-08T20:12:44.390229+00:00", "sample_n": 1103, "screen": "LV", "source_page": 40, "subgroup_n": 193, "unit": "percentage points", "value": 23 }, "public_observation": true, "schema_version": 1, "sources": [ { "access_status": "reviewed_local_record", "field_end": "2026-09-10", "field_start": "2026-09-04", "geography": "CA", "name": "Public Policy Institute of California", "population": "California naturalized citizen likely voters", "published_at": "2026-09-15", "raw_sha256": null, "retrieved_at": null, "screen": "LV", "source_id": null, "url": "https://www.ppic.org/wp-content/uploads/crosstabs-likely-voters-0926.pdf" } ], "status": "observed", "trend": { "delta": null, "first_date": null, "last_date": null, "observations": 0, "per_day": null, "points": [], "status": "not_established", "unit": "percentage points", "window_days": 60 }, "verification": { "discrepancies": [], "newer_measurements": [], "source_urls": [ "https://www.ppic.org/wp-content/uploads/crosstabs-likely-voters-0926.pdf", "https://www.ppic.org/press-release/likely-voters-send-mixed-signals-on-billionaire-wealth-tax-becerra-maintains-wide-lead-over-hilton/" ], "status": "primary_verified", "verified_at": "2026-10-08T20:12:44.390229+00:00" } }, "id": "naturalized_ca_approval", "label": "Trump approval: California naturalized likely voters", "population": "California naturalized citizen likely voters", "source_name": "Public Policy Institute of California", "source_url": "https://www.ppic.org/wp-content/uploads/crosstabs-likely-voters-0926.pdf", "state_scope": "CA", "unit": "percentage points", "value": 23 } ], "method_note": "Eligible Senate projections combine historical polling bias with verified same-wave state presidential approval. Across 32 historical Senate contests, correct winners improve from 22 to 25 and equal-contest mean absolute margin error falls from 5.15 to 4.07 points. The approval term lowers the bias model's error from 4.17 to 4.07 points, with 25 winners unchanged. All 11 paired training-year removal checks improve aggregate margins without reducing winner accuracy; there are ten actual approval applications across three years. The 2018 individual-year error slightly worsens. The base bias model's original 2012 stability tie remains disclosed. Use is provisional and restricted to reviewed Senate sources exactly 13 days before Election Day; Texas is held. Economic and turnout coefficients remain inactive. Governor methods are unchanged. Outcome-aware, overlapping historical tests do not establish independent future accuracy, two-point error or calibrated probabilities. Model formulas and weights remain proprietary. Eligible unpolled House races receive historically tested margin estimates. Local polling retains precedence. These estimates do not establish superiority over polling averages. Some House calls use a provisional historical model. It improved winners and margins over the prior fallback in the compared sample, but did not improve margins over the national polling baseline. Local polling retains precedence in that original fallback group. A zero polling margin stays 0.00; any separately declared winner is a provisional point call, not a measured polling lead. TX-15 and TX-34 use newly source-qualified district fundamentals. Their verified August18–22 LV polls remain in 21CEE averages past60 days, with zero forecast-margin weight. The saved multi-year development comparison improves winners and margins against district-only, with all52 stability checks noninferior. This is provisional development evidence, not independent confirmation or two-point accuracy. Some sources were not refreshed completely. The forecast uses the latest verified inputs available to 21CEE with their original dates. New unverified releases are excluded; polling discovery remains incomplete. Source gaps are not evidence of unchanged polling.", "model_readiness": { "probability_calibrated": false, "watched_local_anchors": 36, "watched_local_trends": 0, "watched_races": 50 }, "model_version": "21CEE-2026", "national": { "movement_application": "not_published" }, "office_counts": { "governor": 10, "house": 28, "senate": 12 }, "political_context": { "House_control": "R", "Senate_control": "R", "Senate_majority_leader": "John Thune", "Speaker": "Mike Johnson", "as_of": "2026-10-07", "presidency": "R", "president": "Donald Trump", "sources": [ "https://www.whitehouse.gov/administration/donald-j-trump/", "https://www.speaker.gov/", "https://www.senate.gov/senators/leadership.htm" ] }, "poll_categories": { "categories": [ { "id": "LV", "label": "Likely voters", "poll_count": 47, "status": "untrained" }, { "id": "RV", "label": "Registered voters", "poll_count": 9, "status": "untrained" }, { "id": "A", "label": "All adults", "poll_count": 0, "status": "untrained" } ] }, "presidential_approval_by_state": { "current_polls": [ { "approve": 40, "disapprove": 59, "field_end": "2026-10-04", "field_start": "2026-10-01", "moe": 3.8, "n": 1505, "net_approve": -19, "pollster": "Marist", "population": "registered voters", "state": "ME", "url": "https://maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/midterm-elections-in-maine-october-2026/" }, { "approve": 40, "disapprove": 53, "field_end": "2026-09-16", "field_start": "2026-09-15", "moe": 3.6, "n": 750, "net_approve": -13, "pollster": "Emerson/Nexstar", "population": "likely voters", "state": "KS", "url": "https://emersoncollegepolling.com/kansas-2026/" }, { "approve": 40, "disapprove": 55, "field_end": "2026-09-14", "field_start": "2026-09-12", "moe": 3, "n": 1000, "net_approve": -15, "pollster": "Emerson/Nexstar", "population": "likely voters", "state": "MI", "url": "https://emersoncollegepolling.com/michigan-2026-poll-el-sayed-and-rogers-locked-in-close-election/" }, { "approve": 45.4, "disapprove": 49.5, "field_end": "2026-09-14", "field_start": "2026-09-12", "moe": 3, "n": 1000, "net_approve": -4.1, "pollster": "Emerson/Nexstar", "population": "likely voters", "state": "TX", "url": "https://emersoncollegepolling.com/texas-2026-poll-talarico-and-paxton-in-dead-heat-abbott-maintains-edge/" }, { "approve": 38, "disapprove": 60, "end": "2026-09-23", "n": 843, "net_approve": -22, "pollster": "Marquette Law School Poll", "population": "registered voters", "start": "2026-09-16", "state": "WI", "url": "https://law.marquette.edu/poll/2026/09/30/mlsp91-press-release/" }, { "approve": 37, "disapprove": 55, "end": "2026-09-08", "n": 680, "net_approve": -18, "pollster": "Emerson College Polling / KLAS-TV", "population": "likely voters", "start": "2026-09-05", "state": "NV", "url": "https://emersoncollegepolling.com/nevada-2026-poll-ford-and-lombardo/" }, { "approve": 38, "disapprove": 60, "field_end": "2026-10-04", "field_start": "2026-10-01", "pollster": "Marist", "population": "registered voters", "state": "NY", "url": "https://maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/midterm-elections-in-new-york-october-2026/" } ], "date": "2026-10-06", "demographics": [ { "approve": 40, "disapprove": 52, "group": "White overall" }, { "approve": 7, "disapprove": 90, "group": "Black" }, { "approve": 28, "disapprove": 68, "group": "Hispanic/Latino" }, { "approve": 25, "disapprove": 70, "group": "Other race" } ], "national": { "approve": 34, "disapprove": 60 }, "population": "registered voters", "source": "https://civiqs.com/results/approve_president_trump_2025", "states": [ { "abbr": "AK", "approve": 39, "disapprove": 54, "net": -15, "state": "Alaska" }, { "abbr": "IA", "approve": 34, "disapprove": 56, "net": -22, "state": "Iowa" }, { "abbr": "ME", "approve": 30, "disapprove": 64, "net": -34, "state": "Maine" }, { "abbr": "NC", "approve": 38, "disapprove": 56, "net": -18, "state": "North Carolina" }, { "abbr": "OH", "approve": 37, "disapprove": 56, "net": -19, "state": "Ohio" }, { "abbr": "TX", "approve": 36, "disapprove": 57, "net": -21, "state": "Texas" }, { "abbr": "MI", "approve": 34, "disapprove": 60, "net": -26, "state": "Michigan" }, { "abbr": "MN", "approve": 28, "disapprove": 64, "net": -36, "state": "Minnesota" }, { "abbr": "KS", "approve": 47, "disapprove": 45, "net": 2, "state": "Kansas" }, { "abbr": "NH", "approve": 28, "disapprove": 65, "net": -37, "state": "New Hampshire" }, { "abbr": "NY", "approve": 27, "disapprove": 68, "net": -41, "state": "New York" }, { "abbr": "PA", "approve": 36, "disapprove": 57, "net": -21, "state": "Pennsylvania" }, { "abbr": "CO", "approve": 29, "disapprove": 66, "net": -37, "state": "Colorado" }, { "abbr": "FL", "approve": 40, "disapprove": 54, "net": -14, "state": "Florida" }, { "abbr": "WA", "approve": 25, "disapprove": 69, "net": -44, "state": "Washington" }, { "abbr": "NV", "approve": 34, "disapprove": 59, "net": -25, "state": "Nevada" }, { "abbr": "OR", "approve": 28, "disapprove": 67, "net": -39, "state": "Oregon" }, { "abbr": "GA", "approve": 33, "disapprove": 59, "net": -26, "state": "Georgia" }, { "abbr": "WI", "approve": 37, "disapprove": 56, "net": -19, "state": "Wisconsin" } ] }, "probability_calibrated": false, "public_carryover_basis": "retained_aggregation_trace", "public_carryovers": { "governor": { "D": 0, "I": 0, "R": 0 }, "house": { "D": 0, "I": 0, "R": 0 }, "senate": { "D": 32, "I": 2, "R": 31 } }, "public_disclosure": { "complete_private_audit_retained": true, "ledger_count": 520, "origin_release_kind": "issued_partial_benchmark", "origin_schema_version": 2, "policy": "proprietary_model_v1", "polling_average_superiority_established": false, "private_snapshot_sha256": "45af533a083e110114d603cdeca117f5b16e96fdbd5bb86e71f092fc066917f2", "probability_calibrated": false, "public_projection_sha256": "129624572546c0fb449c7f15a328647bd8bc514a764bf5ab25a4e7d3eafc5646", "public_report_sha256": "e62cb31db0ce3dd27b25a9c366dcbfb71ecde03d5a26163aa892320b59a64e7a", "recipe_published": false, "schema": "21cee-public-disclosure-v1" }, "public_result_ledger": [ { "candidates": {}, "contested": true, "district": "AK-AL", "held_party": "R", "margin_opponent_party": "R", "margin_reference_party": "D", "office": "house", "pick_name": "R candidate", "pick_party": "R", "prediction_status": "model_pick", "projected_margin": null, "race_id": "HOUSE-AK-AL", "state": "AK", "unresolved_reason": null }, { "candidates": {}, "contested": true, "district": "AL-01", "held_party": "R", "margin_opponent_party": "R", "margin_reference_party": "D", "office": "house", "pick_name": "R candidate", "pick_party": "R", "prediction_status": "model_pick", "projected_margin": null, "race_id": "HOUSE-AL-01", "state": "AL", "unresolved_reason": null }, { "candidates": {}, "contested": true, "district": "AL-02", "held_party": "D", "margin_opponent_party": "R", "margin_reference_party": "D", "office": "house", "pick_name": "R candidate", "pick_party": "R", "prediction_status": "model_pick", "projected_margin": null, 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These are later-produced sensitivities, never issued predictions.", "Current algorithm, configuration, candidates, watched-race selection, district estimates, baselines and held-party assumptions are frozen later-model assumptions, not a recovered Oct3 model.", "Oct1 Inside Elections editions and dated House polls were retrieved later. Their publisher dates are edition proxies, not independent contemporaneous archives.", "House selections cover only qualifying anchors retained in the later input snapshot, not a proven complete or latest historical polling universe. RCP selections use the latest recovered eligible capture, not a guarantee that no later historical page existed.", "Archived RCP pages establish available-by polling evidence only. Coverage is partial; missing local anchors use the unchanged declared rating/district rules.", "The unchanged polling-window check uses interview-end age. Published provider aggregates can include earlier constituent interviews; they are not recomputed into a custom 60-day average.", "All current trend pairs are excluded because both-wave release evidence has not been reviewed; existing zero-movement rules apply.", "CA03/CA06 sitting-holder labels and upcoming-contest party assignments differ. Their publisher transfers are excluded, preserving the existing two later-model declared D allocations; House applies 433 publisher rows, not 435 verified imports.", "Future context, macroeconomic diagnostics and analyst opinion are excluded. No calibration or new factor weights are activated." ], "produced_at": "2026-10-09T04:38:27.444054+00:00", "produced_at_eastern": "2026-10-09T00:38:27.444054-04:00", "prospective_score_eligible": false, "report_path": "reports/retrospective/2026-10-06/all-races.html", "report_sha256": "eb1c10e6a403e4ae75c0d0fa5cad920a4d185cfeb0237be6a555a4506555170e", "research_sha256": "04db4a166d7b9371fb6390c92fbb7b55dd277f62bd5e2ecc0d0d133725824694", "strict_replay_status": "full_historical_input_review_required", "totals": { "governor": { "D": 25, "D_net": 1, "I": 0, "R": 25, "R_net": -1 }, "house": { "D": 222, "D_net": 7, "I": 0, "R": 213, "R_net": -7 }, "senate": { "D": 51, "D_aligned": 53, "D_net": 6, "I": 2, "R": 47, "R_net": -6 } } } ], "issued_start_date": "2026-10-07", "schema_version": 1, "start_date": "2026-10-04", "timezone": "America/New_York" }, "scenario_policy": { "enabled": false, "reason": "This release publishes the completed central projection." }, "schema_version": 2, "sensitivities": [ { "common_D_margin_shift": 0, "totals": { "governor": { "D": 27, "D_net": 3, "D_net_range": [ 3, 3 ], "I": 0, "R": 23, "R_net": -3, "R_net_range": [ -3, -3 ], "complete": true, "unresolved": 0 }, "house": { "D": 230, "D_net": 15, "D_net_range": [ 15, 15 ], "I": 0, "R": 205, "R_net": -15, "R_net_range": [ -15, -15 ], "complete": true, "unresolved": 0 }, "senate": { "D": 51, "D_aligned_known": 53, "D_net": 6, "D_net_range": [ 6, 6 ], "I": 2, "R": 47, "R_net": -6, "R_net_range": [ -6, -6 ], "complete": true, "unresolved": 0 } } } ], "snapshot_sha256": "45af533a083e110114d603cdeca117f5b16e96fdbd5bb86e71f092fc066917f2", "source_cutoff_at": "2026-10-24T10:26:38.255383+00:00", "source_freshness_refreshed": false, "source_health_counts": { "blocked": 0, "discovery_checked": 35, "discovery_unchecked": 0, "errors": 2, "older_measurements": 50, "outside_window": 13, "sources_total": 224, "unchecked": 0 }, "source_retention_notice": { "discovery_complete": false, "note": "Some sources were not refreshed completely. The forecast uses the latest verified inputs available to 21CEE with their original dates. New unverified releases are excluded; polling discovery remains incomplete. Source gaps are not evidence of unchanged polling.", "pending_release_counts": { "current_checked_programs": 34, "current_returned_unparsed_candidates": 99, "current_unchecked_programs": 3, "external_task_failures": 6, "external_tasks_accounted": 38, "new_candidates": 1, "new_candidates_excluded": 1, "new_poll_measurements_imported": 0, "preferred_measurement_connectors_imported": 31, "prior_unparsed_candidates_retained": 120, "returned_candidates": 1052, "saved_nighttime_native_observations_reused": 6, "saved_nighttime_survey_waves_reused": 2 }, "retained_count": 3, "schema": "21cee-retained-source-public-v1", "sources": [ { "id": "bls-core", "last_successful_retrieval_at": "2026-10-23T21:59:05.162000+00:00", "name": "BLS via FRED", "observed_at": "2026-09-30", "status": "retained_history_unrefreshed", "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/data/CPILFENS", "verified_at": "2026-10-23" }, { "id": "bls-headline", "last_successful_retrieval_at": "2026-10-23T21:59:07.566000+00:00", "name": "BLS via FRED", "observed_at": "2026-09-30", "status": "retained_history_unrefreshed", "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/data/CPIAUCNS", "verified_at": "2026-10-23" }, { "id": "rcp-approval", "last_successful_retrieval_at": "2026-10-23T22:01:20.608000+00:00", "name": "RealClearPolling", "observed_at": "2026-10-22", "status": "retained_history_unrefreshed", "url": "https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/approval-rating", "verified_at": "2026-10-23" } ] }, "state_delegations": { "color_basis": { "governor": "Projected or continuing governor: Democratic blue, Republican red, independent beige.", "house": "Blue/red requires strictly more than 60% Democratic/Republican seats; beige requires an independent majority; otherwise purple.", "senate": "Two Democratic senators: blue; two Republicans: red; two independents: beige; any split: purple. Includes seats not up this cycle." }, "offices": { "governor": { "seat_count": 50, "states": { "AK": { "D": 1, "I": 0, "R": 0, "carryovers": { "D": 0, "I": 0, "R": 0 }, "color": "blue", "elected": { "D": 1, "I": 0, "R": 0 }, "race_ids": [ "GOVERNOR-AK" ], "total": 1 }, "AL": { "D": 0, "I": 0, "R": 1, "carryovers": { "D": 0, "I": 0, "R": 0 }, "color": "red", "elected": { "D": 0, "I": 0, "R": 1 }, "race_ids": [ "GOVERNOR-AL" ], "total": 1 }, "AR": { "D": 0, "I": 0, "R": 1, "carryovers": { "D": 0, "I": 0, "R": 0 }, "color": "red", "elected": { "D": 0, "I": 0, "R": 1 }, "race_ids": [ "GOVERNOR-AR" ], "total": 1 }, "AZ": { "D": 1, "I": 0, "R": 0, "carryovers": { "D": 0, "I": 0, "R": 0 }, "color": "blue", "elected": { "D": 1, "I": 0, "R": 0 }, "race_ids": [ "GOVERNOR-AZ" ], "total": 1 }, "CA": { "D": 1, "I": 0, "R": 0, "carryovers": { "D": 0, "I": 0, "R": 0 }, "color": "blue", "elected": { "D": 1, "I": 0, "R": 0 }, "race_ids": [ "GOVERNOR-CA" ], "total": 1 }, "CO": { "D": 1, "I": 0, "R": 0, "carryovers": { "D": 0, "I": 0, "R": 0 }, "color": "blue", "elected": { "D": 1, "I": 0, "R": 0 }, "race_ids": [ "GOVERNOR-CO" ], "total": 1 }, "CT": { "D": 1, "I": 0, "R": 0, "carryovers": { "D": 0, "I": 0, "R": 0 }, "color": "blue", "elected": { "D": 1, "I": 0, "R": 0 }, "race_ids": [ "GOVERNOR-CT" ], "total": 1 }, "DE": { "D": 1, "I": 0, "R": 0, "carryovers": { "D": 1, "I": 0, "R": 0 }, "color": "blue", "elected": { "D": 0, "I": 0, "R": 0 }, "race_ids": [ "GOVERNOR-DE" ], "total": 1 }, "FL": { "D": 0, "I": 0, "R": 1, "carryovers": { "D": 0, "I": 0, "R": 0 }, "color": "red", "elected": { "D": 0, "I": 0, "R": 1 }, "race_ids": [ "GOVERNOR-FL" ], "total": 1 }, "GA": { "D": 0, "I": 0, "R": 1, "carryovers": { "D": 0, "I": 0, "R": 0 }, "color": "red", "elected": { "D": 0, "I": 0, "R": 1 }, "race_ids": [ "GOVERNOR-GA" ], "total": 1 }, "HI": { "D": 1, "I": 0, "R": 0, "carryovers": { "D": 0, "I": 0, "R": 0 }, "color": "blue", "elected": { "D": 1, "I": 0, "R": 0 }, "race_ids": [ "GOVERNOR-HI" ], "total": 1 }, "IA": { "D": 1, "I": 0, "R": 0, "carryovers": { "D": 0, "I": 0, "R": 0 }, "color": "blue", "elected": { "D": 1, "I": 0, "R": 0 }, "race_ids": [ "GOVERNOR-IA" ], "total": 1 }, "ID": { "D": 0, "I": 0, "R": 1, "carryovers": { "D": 0, "I": 0, "R": 0 }, "color": "red", "elected": { "D": 0, "I": 0, "R": 1 }, "race_ids": [ "GOVERNOR-ID" ], "total": 1 }, "IL": { "D": 1, "I": 0, "R": 0, "carryovers": { "D": 0, "I": 0, "R": 0 }, "color": "blue", "elected": { "D": 1, "I": 0, "R": 0 }, "race_ids": [ "GOVERNOR-IL" ], "total": 1 }, "IN": { "D": 0, "I": 0, "R": 1, "carryovers": { "D": 0, "I": 0, "R": 1 }, "color": "red", "elected": { "D": 0, "I": 0, "R": 0 }, "race_ids": [ "GOVERNOR-IN" ], "total": 1 }, "KS": { "D": 0, "I": 0, "R": 1, "carryovers": { "D": 0, "I": 0, "R": 0 }, "color": "red", "elected": { "D": 0, "I": 0, "R": 1 }, "race_ids": [ "GOVERNOR-KS" ], "total": 1 }, "KY": { "D": 1, "I": 0, "R": 0, "carryovers": { "D": 1, "I": 0, "R": 0 }, "color": "blue", "elected": { "D": 0, "I": 0, "R": 0 }, "race_ids": [ "GOVERNOR-KY" ], "total": 1 }, "LA": { "D": 0, "I": 0, "R": 1, "carryovers": { "D": 0, "I": 0, "R": 1 }, "color": "red", "elected": { "D": 0, "I": 0, "R": 0 }, "race_ids": [ "GOVERNOR-LA" ], "total": 1 }, "MA": { "D": 1, "I": 0, "R": 0, "carryovers": { "D": 0, "I": 0, "R": 0 }, "color": "blue", "elected": { "D": 1, "I": 0, "R": 0 }, "race_ids": [ "GOVERNOR-MA" ], "total": 1 }, "MD": { "D": 1, "I": 0, "R": 0, "carryovers": { "D": 0, "I": 0, "R": 0 }, "color": "blue", "elected": { "D": 1, "I": 0, "R": 0 }, "race_ids": [ "GOVERNOR-MD" ], "total": 1 }, "ME": { "D": 1, "I": 0, "R": 0, "carryovers": { "D": 0, "I": 0, "R": 0 }, "color": "blue", "elected": { "D": 1, "I": 0, "R": 0 }, "race_ids": [ "GOVERNOR-ME" ], "total": 1 }, "MI": { "D": 1, "I": 0, "R": 0, "carryovers": { "D": 0, "I": 0, "R": 0 }, "color": "blue", "elected": { "D": 1, "I": 0, "R": 0 }, "race_ids": [ "GOVERNOR-MI" ], "total": 1 }, "MN": { "D": 1, "I": 0, "R": 0, "carryovers": { "D": 0, "I": 0, "R": 0 }, "color": "blue", "elected": { "D": 1, "I": 0, "R": 0 }, "race_ids": [ "GOVERNOR-MN" ], "total": 1 }, "MO": { "D": 0, "I": 0, "R": 1, "carryovers": { "D": 0, "I": 0, "R": 1 }, "color": "red", "elected": { "D": 0, "I": 0, "R": 0 }, "race_ids": [ "GOVERNOR-MO" ], "total": 1 }, "MS": { "D": 0, "I": 0, "R": 1, "carryovers": { "D": 0, "I": 0, "R": 1 }, "color": "red", "elected": { "D": 0, "I": 0, "R": 0 }, "race_ids": [ "GOVERNOR-MS" ], "total": 1 }, "MT": { "D": 0, "I": 0, "R": 1, "carryovers": { "D": 0, "I": 0, "R": 1 }, "color": "red", "elected": { "D": 0, "I": 0, "R": 0 }, "race_ids": [ "GOVERNOR-MT" ], "total": 1 }, "NC": { "D": 1, "I": 0, "R": 0, "carryovers": { "D": 1, "I": 0, "R": 0 }, "color": "blue", "elected": { "D": 0, "I": 0, "R": 0 }, "race_ids": [ "GOVERNOR-NC" ], "total": 1 }, "ND": { "D": 0, "I": 0, "R": 1, "carryovers": { "D": 0, "I": 0, "R": 1 }, "color": "red", "elected": { "D": 0, "I": 0, "R": 0 }, "race_ids": [ "GOVERNOR-ND" ], "total": 1 }, "NE": { "D": 0, "I": 0, "R": 1, "carryovers": { "D": 0, "I": 0, "R": 0 }, "color": "red", "elected": { "D": 0, "I": 0, "R": 1 }, "race_ids": [ "GOVERNOR-NE" ], "total": 1 }, "NH": { "D": 0, "I": 0, "R": 1, "carryovers": { "D": 0, "I": 0, "R": 0 }, "color": "red", "elected": { "D": 0, "I": 0, "R": 1 }, "race_ids": [ "GOVERNOR-NH" ], "total": 1 }, "NJ": { "D": 1, "I": 0, "R": 0, "carryovers": { "D": 1, "I": 0, "R": 0 }, "color": "blue", "elected": { "D": 0, "I": 0, "R": 0 }, "race_ids": [ "GOVERNOR-NJ" ], "total": 1 }, "NM": { "D": 1, "I": 0, "R": 0, "carryovers": { "D": 0, "I": 0, "R": 0 }, "color": "blue", "elected": { "D": 1, "I": 0, "R": 0 }, "race_ids": [ "GOVERNOR-NM" ], "total": 1 }, "NV": { "D": 1, "I": 0, "R": 0, "carryovers": { "D": 0, "I": 0, "R": 0 }, "color": "blue", "elected": { "D": 1, "I": 0, "R": 0 }, "race_ids": [ "GOVERNOR-NV" ], "total": 1 }, "NY": { "D": 1, "I": 0, "R": 0, "carryovers": { "D": 0, "I": 0, "R": 0 }, "color": "blue", "elected": { "D": 1, "I": 0, "R": 0 }, "race_ids": [ "GOVERNOR-NY" ], "total": 1 }, "OH": { "D": 1, "I": 0, "R": 0, "carryovers": { "D": 0, "I": 0, "R": 0 }, "color": "blue", "elected": { "D": 1, "I": 0, "R": 0 }, "race_ids": [ "GOVERNOR-OH" ], "total": 1 }, "OK": { "D": 0, "I": 0, "R": 1, "carryovers": { "D": 0, "I": 0, "R": 0 }, "color": "red", "elected": { "D": 0, "I": 0, "R": 1 }, "race_ids": [ "GOVERNOR-OK" ], "total": 1 }, "OR": { "D": 1, "I": 0, "R": 0, "carryovers": { "D": 0, "I": 0, "R": 0 }, "color": "blue", "elected": { "D": 1, "I": 0, "R": 0 }, "race_ids": [ "GOVERNOR-OR" ], "total": 1 }, "PA": { "D": 1, "I": 0, "R": 0, "carryovers": { "D": 0, "I": 0, "R": 0 }, "color": "blue", "elected": { "D": 1, "I": 0, "R": 0 }, "race_ids": [ "GOVERNOR-PA" ], "total": 1 }, "RI": { "D": 1, "I": 0, "R": 0, "carryovers": { "D": 0, "I": 0, "R": 0 }, "color": "blue", "elected": { "D": 1, "I": 0, "R": 0 }, "race_ids": [ "GOVERNOR-RI" ], "total": 1 }, "SC": { "D": 0, "I": 0, "R": 1, "carryovers": { "D": 0, "I": 0, "R": 0 }, "color": "red", "elected": { "D": 0, "I": 0, "R": 1 }, "race_ids": [ "GOVERNOR-SC" ], "total": 1 }, "SD": { "D": 0, "I": 0, "R": 1, "carryovers": { "D": 0, "I": 0, "R": 0 }, "color": "red", "elected": { "D": 0, "I": 0, "R": 1 }, "race_ids": [ "GOVERNOR-SD" ], "total": 1 }, "TN": { "D": 0, "I": 0, "R": 1, "carryovers": { "D": 0, "I": 0, "R": 0 }, "color": "red", "elected": { "D": 0, "I": 0, "R": 1 }, "race_ids": [ "GOVERNOR-TN" ], "total": 1 }, "TX": { "D": 0, "I": 0, "R": 1, "carryovers": { "D": 0, "I": 0, "R": 0 }, "color": "red", "elected": { "D": 0, "I": 0, "R": 1 }, "race_ids": [ "GOVERNOR-TX" ], "total": 1 }, "UT": { "D": 0, "I": 0, "R": 1, "carryovers": { "D": 0, "I": 0, "R": 1 }, "color": "red", "elected": { "D": 0, "I": 0, "R": 0 }, "race_ids": [ "GOVERNOR-UT" ], "total": 1 }, "VA": { "D": 1, "I": 0, "R": 0, "carryovers": { "D": 1, "I": 0, "R": 0 }, "color": "blue", "elected": { "D": 0, "I": 0, "R": 0 }, "race_ids": [ "GOVERNOR-VA" ], "total": 1 }, "VT": { "D": 0, "I": 0, "R": 1, "carryovers": { "D": 0, "I": 0, "R": 0 }, "color": "red", "elected": { "D": 0, "I": 0, "R": 1 }, "race_ids": [ "GOVERNOR-VT" ], "total": 1 }, "WA": { "D": 1, "I": 0, "R": 0, "carryovers": { "D": 1, "I": 0, "R": 0 }, "color": "blue", "elected": { "D": 0, "I": 0, "R": 0 }, "race_ids": [ "GOVERNOR-WA" ], "total": 1 }, "WI": { "D": 1, "I": 0, "R": 0, "carryovers": { "D": 0, "I": 0, "R": 0 }, "color": "blue", "elected": { "D": 1, "I": 0, "R": 0 }, "race_ids": [ "GOVERNOR-WI" ], "total": 1 }, "WV": { "D": 0, "I": 0, "R": 1, "carryovers": { "D": 0, "I": 0, "R": 1 }, "color": "red", "elected": { "D": 0, "I": 0, "R": 0 }, "race_ids": [ "GOVERNOR-WV" ], "total": 1 }, "WY": { "D": 0, "I": 0, "R": 1, "carryovers": { "D": 0, "I": 0, "R": 0 }, "color": "red", "elected": { "D": 0, "I": 0, "R": 1 }, "race_ids": [ "GOVERNOR-WY" ], "total": 1 } } }, "house": { "seat_count": 435, "states": { "AK": { "D": 0, "I": 0, "R": 1, "carryovers": { "D": 0, "I": 0, "R": 0 }, "color": "red", "elected": { "D": 0, "I": 0, "R": 1 }, "race_ids": [ "HOUSE-AK-AL" ], "total": 1 }, "AL": { "D": 1, "I": 0, "R": 6, "carryovers": { "D": 0, "I": 0, "R": 0 }, "color": "red", "elected": { "D": 1, "I": 0, "R": 6 }, "race_ids": [ "HOUSE-AL-01", "HOUSE-AL-02", "HOUSE-AL-03", "HOUSE-AL-04", "HOUSE-AL-05", "HOUSE-AL-06", "HOUSE-AL-07" ], "total": 7 }, "AR": { "D": 0, "I": 0, "R": 4, "carryovers": { "D": 0, "I": 0, "R": 0 }, "color": "red", "elected": { "D": 0, "I": 0, "R": 4 }, "race_ids": [ "HOUSE-AR-01", "HOUSE-AR-02", "HOUSE-AR-03", "HOUSE-AR-04" ], "total": 4 }, "AZ": { "D": 5, "I": 0, "R": 4, "carryovers": { "D": 0, "I": 0, "R": 0 }, "color": "purple", "elected": { "D": 5, "I": 0, "R": 4 }, "race_ids": [ "HOUSE-AZ-01", "HOUSE-AZ-02", "HOUSE-AZ-03", "HOUSE-AZ-04", "HOUSE-AZ-05", "HOUSE-AZ-06", "HOUSE-AZ-07", "HOUSE-AZ-08", "HOUSE-AZ-09" ], "total": 9 }, "CA": { "D": 48, "I": 0, "R": 4, "carryovers": { "D": 0, "I": 0, "R": 0 }, "color": "blue", "elected": { "D": 48, "I": 0, "R": 4 }, "race_ids": [ "HOUSE-CA-01", "HOUSE-CA-02", 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"race_id": "HOUSE-IA-02", "state": "IA" }, { "candidates": { "D": "Sarah Trone Garriott", "R": "Zach Nunn" }, "district": "IA-03", "office": "house", "race_id": "HOUSE-IA-03", "state": "IA" }, { "candidates": { "D": "Sean McCann", "R": "Bill Huizenga" }, "district": "MI-04", "office": "house", "race_id": "HOUSE-MI-04", "state": "MI" }, { "candidates": { "D": "William Lawrence", "R": "Tom Barrett" }, "district": "MI-07", "office": "house", "race_id": "HOUSE-MI-07", "state": "MI" }, { "candidates": { "D": "Christina Hines", "R": "Michael Bouchard Jr." }, "district": "MI-10", "office": "house", "race_id": "HOUSE-MI-10", "state": "MI" }, { "candidates": { "D": "Don Davis", "R": "Laurie Buckhout" }, "district": "NC-01", "office": "house", "race_id": "HOUSE-NC-01", "state": "NC" }, { "candidates": { "D": "Denise Powell", "R": "Brinker Harding" }, "district": "NE-02", "office": "house", "race_id": "HOUSE-NE-02", "state": "NE" }, { "candidates": { "D": "Rebecca Bennett", "R": "Thomas H. Kean Jr." }, "district": "NJ-07", "office": "house", "race_id": "HOUSE-NJ-07", "state": "NJ" }, { "candidates": { "D": "Gabriel Vasquez", "R": "Gregory G Cunningham" }, "district": "NM-02", "office": "house", "race_id": "HOUSE-NM-02", "state": "NM" }, { "candidates": { "D": "Laura A. Gillen", "R": "Jeanine C. Driscoll" }, "district": "NY-04", "office": "house", "race_id": "HOUSE-NY-04", "state": "NY" }, { "candidates": { "D": "Cait Conley", "R": "Mike Lawler" }, "district": "NY-17", "office": "house", "race_id": "HOUSE-NY-17", "state": "NY" }, { "candidates": { "D": "Brian Poindexter", "R": "Max Miller" }, "district": "OH-07", "office": "house", "race_id": "HOUSE-OH-07", "state": "OH" }, { "candidates": { "D": "Bob Brooks", "R": "Ryan Mackenzie" }, "district": "PA-07", "office": "house", "race_id": "HOUSE-PA-07", "state": "PA" }, { "candidates": { "D": "Paige Cognetti", "R": "Rob Bresnahan Jr." }, "district": "PA-08", "office": "house", "race_id": "HOUSE-PA-08", "state": "PA" }, { "candidates": { "D": "Janelle Stelson", "R": "Scott Perry" }, "district": "PA-10", "office": "house", "race_id": "HOUSE-PA-10", "state": "PA" }, { "candidates": { "D": "Bobby Pulido", "R": "Monica De La Cruz" }, "district": "TX-15", "office": "house", "race_id": "HOUSE-TX-15", "state": "TX" }, { "candidates": { "D": "Vicente Gonzalez", "R": "Eric Flores" }, "district": "TX-34", "office": "house", "race_id": "HOUSE-TX-34", "state": "TX" }, { "candidates": { "D": "Marie Gluesenkamp Perez", "R": "John Braun" }, "district": "WA-03", "office": "house", "race_id": "HOUSE-WA-03", "state": "WA" }, { "candidates": { "D": "Rebecca Cooke", "R": "Derrick Van Orden" }, "district": "WI-03", "office": "house", "race_id": "HOUSE-WI-03", "state": "WI" }, { "candidates": { "D": "Mary Peltola", "R": "Dan Sullivan" }, "district": null, "office": "senate", "race_id": "SENATE-AK", "state": "AK" }, { "candidates": { "D": "Jon Ossoff", "R": "Mike Collins" }, "district": null, "office": "senate", "race_id": "SENATE-GA", "state": "GA" }, { "candidates": { "D": "Josh Turek", "R": "Ashley Hinson" }, "district": null, "office": "senate", "race_id": "SENATE-IA", "state": "IA" }, { "candidates": { "D": "Adam Hamilton", "R": "Roger Marshall" }, "district": null, "office": "senate", "race_id": "SENATE-KS", "state": "KS" }, { "candidates": { "D": "Troy Jackson", "R": "Susan Collins" }, "district": null, "office": "senate", "race_id": "SENATE-ME", "state": "ME" }, { "candidates": { "D": "Abdul El-Sayed", "R": "Mike Rogers" }, "district": null, "office": "senate", "race_id": "SENATE-MI", "state": "MI" }, { "candidates": { "D": "Peggy Flanagan", "R": "Michele Tafoya" }, "district": null, "office": "senate", "race_id": "SENATE-MN", "state": "MN" }, { "candidates": { "D": "Roy Cooper", "R": "Michael Whatley" }, "district": null, "office": "senate", "race_id": "SENATE-NC", "state": "NC" }, { "candidates": { "I": "Dan Osborn", "R": "Pete Ricketts" }, "district": null, "office": "senate", "race_id": "SENATE-NE", "state": "NE" }, { "candidates": { "D": "Chris Pappas", "R": "John E. Sununu" }, "district": null, "office": "senate", "race_id": "SENATE-NH", "state": "NH" }, { "candidates": { "D": "Sherrod Brown", "R": "Jon Husted" }, "district": null, "office": "senate", "race_id": "SENATE-OH", "state": "OH" }, { "candidates": { "D": "James Talarico", "R": "Ken Paxton" }, "district": null, "office": "senate", "race_id": "SENATE-TX", "state": "TX" } ], "cohort_count": 50, "cohort_id": "2026-top-50-v1", "correct_calls_required_for_target": 49, "declared_at": "2026-10-14T18:27:29.904293+00:00", "election_day": "2026-11-03", "expected_counts": { "governor": 10, "house": 28, "senate": 12 }, "policy": "fixed_watchlist_v1", "race_ids": [ "GOVERNOR-AK", "GOVERNOR-AZ", "GOVERNOR-GA", "GOVERNOR-IA", "GOVERNOR-KS", "GOVERNOR-MI", "GOVERNOR-NV", "GOVERNOR-OH", "GOVERNOR-OR", "GOVERNOR-WI", "HOUSE-AZ-01", "HOUSE-AZ-06", "HOUSE-CA-13", "HOUSE-CA-48", "HOUSE-CO-05", "HOUSE-CO-08", "HOUSE-FL-14", "HOUSE-FL-22", "HOUSE-IA-01", "HOUSE-IA-02", "HOUSE-IA-03", "HOUSE-MI-04", "HOUSE-MI-07", "HOUSE-MI-10", "HOUSE-NC-01", "HOUSE-NE-02", "HOUSE-NJ-07", "HOUSE-NM-02", "HOUSE-NY-04", "HOUSE-NY-17", "HOUSE-OH-07", "HOUSE-PA-07", "HOUSE-PA-08", "HOUSE-PA-10", "HOUSE-TX-15", "HOUSE-TX-34", "HOUSE-WA-03", "HOUSE-WI-03", "SENATE-AK", "SENATE-GA", "SENATE-IA", "SENATE-KS", "SENATE-ME", "SENATE-MI", "SENATE-MN", "SENATE-NC", "SENATE-NE", "SENATE-NH", "SENATE-OH", "SENATE-TX" ], "schema": "21cee-fixed-watchlist-receipt-v1", "selection_rule": "Contested races only. Rank by smallest absolute publisher category (Toss Up, Tilt, Lean, Likely, Solid), then within a tied category use available current local poll absolute margin (polled before unpolled), then stable race ID. No historical test outcome, candidate-name completeness or new experimental prediction enters selection. Fixed at registration; no post-election substitutions.", "stage": "general" } }