PRESIDENTIAL JOB APPROVAL
2026 MIDTERM FORECAST
The balance
of power.
House. Senate. Governors.
Every call. One clear picture.
Release details
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THE BALANCE OF POWER
2026 projections.
Projected seats. Updated at 6 a.m. and 6 p.m. Eastern.
DemocraticRepublicanIndependentMixed
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Data status & limitations
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THE CONTESTS
A closer look.
Polling, history and voter context.
↗02 / THE RACESMeet the contenders.50 matchups. Every projected winner.
↗03 / THE DAILY LEDGERFollow what changed.The report, changes and next releases.
↗THE ENGINE ROOM
Signals behind the calls.
Explore every tracked factor, its measurement, and its actual role in the model.
NATIONAL POLLING PATH—Waiting for a released snapshotPOLLING → TREND → PROJECTION
Lines organize the inputs. They do not imply equal weights. Measured context gets an additional vote effect only when the engine has a supported rule.
THE COMPLETE SIGNAL BOARD
The signal board.
01 / LOCAL POLLS—
Race-specific vote intention anchors the watchlist.
02 / COMPATIBLE TRENDS—
Within-firm movement; capped and reduced for sparse evidence.
03 / NATIONAL LEDGER520 rows
Local estimates, district baselines and dated rating rules fill out the totals.
Read the exact released formula, parameters and model notes
THE ELECTORATE BEHIND THE NUMBERS
The voter picture.
Distinct populations and questions stay distinct. These readings describe the electorate around the race polls.
Four families of voter priorities.
Three voter screens. Different populations.
How historical screen accuracy is evaluated
HOW MUCH COULD IT MOVE?
Test a different margin.
Apply a common polling-margin shift to the released numeric race estimates and see how the chamber picks change.
A sensitivity exercise using the engine’s published rules. It is not a probability range, and it does not alter the daily forecast.
A QUARTER CENTURY OF CONTEXT
History in context.
Explore actual economic observations from 2000 through the latest available 2026 release.
Historical context is not a fitted causal estimate of how these indicators change votes.
THE WATCHLIST
The races.
12 Senate. 28 House. 10 governor races. Fixed cohort: every pick stays on the record.
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Margins are Democratic minus Republican vote points. A projected lead is not a win probability. A source date is the date of the measurement, not today’s refresh.
THE SAVED RECORD
Prediction History
Archive notes
THE 21CEE DAILY LEDGER
The daily briefing.
All 520 calls. What changed. What comes next.
Full daily report Read today’s three update drafts →Open today’s complete update text
What moved?
Reading changes from the released forecast.
Where does it land?
Reading the daily national projections.
What comes next?
Reading verified upcoming releases.
Reader Pulse is loading. Participation is optional; shared reader results are separate from the election forecast.
THE PEOPLE AND PROCESS BEHIND 21CEE
How 21CEE works.
The founder shaped 21CEE’s questions, data priorities, lever selection and design. GPT-6.1 Sol assisted with source research, coding, testing and documentation.
This release uses raw polling anchors and published rating directions for supported picks. Structural carryovers are identified separately. Open a race to inspect its source dates, actual inputs and any unresolved status.
Read the complete references and attributions →
How to read a 21CEE projection.
Polling anchors must have an interview end date within the past 60 days. Native provider averages can include earlier constituent polls. Unsupported directions and exact raw polling ties remain unresolved. Bounds show possible allocations of unresolved seats, not win probabilities. Historical probability calibration and incremental predictive skill remain unestablished.
IN THE KNOW · THE 21CEE NEWSLETTER
Two updates.
One evening briefing.
Three planned emails each day: 6 a.m. and 6 p.m. Eastern forecast updates, then In The Know at 9 p.m. covering both releases, verified election news and that day’s Reader Pulse results as of the capture time. Polls stay open until 6 a.m. the next morning, so evening results are not final.
6 A.M. · 6 P.M. · 9 P.M. EASTERN
In The Know
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Help keep the ledger open.
Independent sponsorship and optional reader support are planned. Details will appear here when available.